Daily Report
06 December 2021
This report is updated automatically each day to highlight key insights from the MosquitoAlertES platform. It focuses on the 6-day-ahead forecast of the Vector Risk Index (VRI) for tiger mosquitoes (Aedes albopictus) in Spain. This provides a relative measure of the variation in the risk of human contact with tiger mosquitoes across Spain and over time. The 6-day-ahead forecast (which starts on the current day) is based on the weather forecast provided daily by the Spanish Meteorological Agency.
Country-Wide Trends
During the next 7 days, we estimate the mean VRI in Spain will be 0.03 and the maximum will be 0.35, occuring on December 07 in Caldes d’Estrac, Barcelona, Cataluña/Catalunya. Figure 1 shows the mean and maximum values estimated for each day, starting 30-days ago and extending 6-days ahead.
Figure 1: Estimated country-wide VRI during past 30 days and coming 6 days. Red line indicates maximum values each day; blue indicates means. Vertical black dotted line shows current day.
CCAA Trends
Figure 2 shows the mean and maximum VRI estimates for each of Spain’s Autonomous Communities (CCAAs) from during the past 365 days (top panel) and for the week ahead (bottom panel).
Figure 2: Mean and maximum VRI estimates by CCAA during the past year (left) and in the week ahead (right).
The following sections show mean and maximum values for each autonomous community.
Andalucía
During the next 7 days, we estimate the mean VRI in Andalucía will be 0.03, and the maximum will be 0.18, occuring on December 11 in Torremolinos, Málaga. As a comparison, during the past 30 days, the mean VRI has been 0.03, and the maximum has been 0.26, occuring on November 19 in Castilleja de la Cuesta, Sevilla. During the past 365 days, the mean VRI has been 0.07, and the maximum has been 0.56, occuring on December 12 in Torremolinos, Málaga. The figure below shows the mean and maximum values estimated for the past 30 days ago and the 6-day ahead forecast.
Figure 3: Estimated VRI in Andalucía during past 30 days and coming 7 days. Red line indicates maximum values each day; blue indicates means. Vertical black dotted line shows current day.
Aragón
During the next 7 days, we estimate the mean VRI in Aragón will be 0.02, and the maximum will be 0.06, occuring on December 09 in Torrellas, Zaragoza. As a comparison, during the past 30 days, the mean VRI has been 0.02, and the maximum has been 0.08, occuring on November 17 in Torrellas, Zaragoza. During the past 365 days, the mean VRI has been 0.05, and the maximum has been 0.23, occuring on July 07 in Cuarte de Huerva, Zaragoza. The figure below shows the mean and maximum values estimated for the past 30 days ago and the 6-day ahead forecast.
Figure 4: Estimated VRI in Aragón during past 30 days and coming 7 days. Red line indicates maximum values each day; blue indicates means. Vertical black dotted line shows current day.
Cantabria
During the next 7 days, we estimate the mean VRI in Cantabria will be 0.03, and the maximum will be 0.1, occuring on December 07 in Reinosa, Cantabria. As a comparison, during the past 30 days, the mean VRI has been 0.03, and the maximum has been 0.11, occuring on November 14 in Reinosa, Cantabria. During the past 365 days, the mean VRI has been 0.06, and the maximum has been 0.34, occuring on June 13 in Reinosa, Cantabria. The figure below shows the mean and maximum values estimated for the past 30 days ago and the 6-day ahead forecast.
Figure 5: Estimated VRI in Cantabria during past 30 days and coming 7 days. Red line indicates maximum values each day; blue indicates means. Vertical black dotted line shows current day.
Castilla y León
During the next 7 days, we estimate the mean VRI in Castilla y León will be 0.03, and the maximum will be 0.09, occuring on December 07 in Santa Marta de Tormes, Salamanca. As a comparison, during the past 30 days, the mean VRI has been 0.03, and the maximum has been 0.1, occuring on November 13 in Santa Marta de Tormes, Salamanca. During the past 365 days, the mean VRI has been 0.04, and the maximum has been 0.29, occuring on July 15 in Santa Marta de Tormes, Salamanca. The figure below shows the mean and maximum values estimated for the past 30 days ago and the 6-day ahead forecast.
Figure 6: Estimated VRI in Castilla y León during past 30 days and coming 7 days. Red line indicates maximum values each day; blue indicates means. Vertical black dotted line shows current day.
Castilla-La Mancha
During the next 7 days, we estimate the mean VRI in Castilla-La Mancha will be 0.02, and the maximum will be 0.06, occuring on December 09 in Yuncos, Toledo. As a comparison, during the past 30 days, the mean VRI has been 0.02, and the maximum has been 0.07, occuring on November 13 in Yuncos, Toledo. During the past 365 days, the mean VRI has been 0.05, and the maximum has been 0.22, occuring on July 13 in Yeles, Toledo. The figure below shows the mean and maximum values estimated for the past 30 days ago and the 6-day ahead forecast.
Figure 7: Estimated VRI in Castilla-La Mancha during past 30 days and coming 7 days. Red line indicates maximum values each day; blue indicates means. Vertical black dotted line shows current day.
Cataluña/Catalunya
During the next 7 days, we estimate the mean VRI in Cataluña/Catalunya will be 0.05, and the maximum will be 0.35, occuring on December 07 in Caldes d’Estrac, Barcelona. As a comparison, during the past 30 days, the mean VRI has been 0.04, and the maximum has been 0.36, occuring on November 20 in Caldes d’Estrac, Barcelona. During the past 365 days, the mean VRI has been 0.07, and the maximum has been 0.42, occuring on October 18 in Caldes d’Estrac, Barcelona. The figure below shows the mean and maximum values estimated for the past 30 days ago and the 6-day ahead forecast.
Figure 8: Estimated VRI in Cataluña/Catalunya during past 30 days and coming 7 days. Red line indicates maximum values each day; blue indicates means. Vertical black dotted line shows current day.
Ciudad Autónoma de Ceuta
During the next 7 days, we estimate the mean VRI in Ciudad Autónoma de Ceuta will be 0.05, and the maximum will be 0.05, occuring on December 10 in Ceuta, Ceuta. As a comparison, during the past 30 days, the mean VRI has been 0.07, and the maximum has been 0.19, occuring on November 15 in Ceuta, Ceuta. During the past 365 days, the mean VRI has been 0.12, and the maximum has been 0.22, occuring on July 29 in Ceuta, Ceuta. The figure below shows the mean and maximum values estimated for the past 30 days ago and the 6-day ahead forecast.
Figure 9: Estimated VRI in Ciudad Autónoma de Ceuta during past 30 days and coming 7 days. Red line indicates maximum values each day; blue indicates means. Vertical black dotted line shows current day.
Ciudad Autónoma de Melilla
During the next 7 days, we estimate the mean VRI in Ciudad Autónoma de Melilla will be 0.07, and the maximum will be 0.09, occuring on December 11 in Melilla, Melilla. As a comparison, during the past 30 days, the mean VRI has been 0.08, and the maximum has been 0.26, occuring on November 19 in Melilla, Melilla. During the past 365 days, the mean VRI has been 0.11, and the maximum has been 0.26, occuring on September 03 in Melilla, Melilla. The figure below shows the mean and maximum values estimated for the past 30 days ago and the 6-day ahead forecast.
Figure 10: Estimated VRI in Ciudad Autónoma de Melilla during past 30 days and coming 7 days. Red line indicates maximum values each day; blue indicates means. Vertical black dotted line shows current day.
Comunidad de Madrid
During the next 7 days, we estimate the mean VRI in Comunidad de Madrid will be 0.02, and the maximum will be 0.05, occuring on December 07 in Coslada, Madrid. As a comparison, during the past 30 days, the mean VRI has been 0.02, and the maximum has been 0.09, occuring on November 16 in Pozuelo de Alarcón, Madrid. During the past 365 days, the mean VRI has been 0.05, and the maximum has been 0.28, occuring on July 13 in Pozuelo de Alarcón, Madrid. The figure below shows the mean and maximum values estimated for the past 30 days ago and the 6-day ahead forecast.
Figure 11: Estimated VRI in Comunidad de Madrid during past 30 days and coming 7 days. Red line indicates maximum values each day; blue indicates means. Vertical black dotted line shows current day.
Comunidad Foral de Navarra
During the next 7 days, we estimate the mean VRI in Comunidad Foral de Navarra will be 0.03, and the maximum will be 0.14, occuring on December 07 in Burlada/Burlata, Navarra. As a comparison, during the past 30 days, the mean VRI has been 0.03, and the maximum has been 0.16, occuring on November 17 in Burlada/Burlata, Navarra. During the past 365 days, the mean VRI has been 0.06, and the maximum has been 0.4, occuring on July 10 in Burlada/Burlata, Navarra. The figure below shows the mean and maximum values estimated for the past 30 days ago and the 6-day ahead forecast.
Figure 12: Estimated VRI in Comunidad Foral de Navarra during past 30 days and coming 7 days. Red line indicates maximum values each day; blue indicates means. Vertical black dotted line shows current day.
Comunitat Valenciana
During the next 7 days, we estimate the mean VRI in Comunitat Valenciana will be 0.03, and the maximum will be 0.18, occuring on December 07 in Beniarjó, Valencia/Valéncia. As a comparison, during the past 30 days, the mean VRI has been 0.03, and the maximum has been 0.31, occuring on November 12 in Tavernes Blanques, Valencia/Valéncia. During the past 365 days, the mean VRI has been 0.08, and the maximum has been 0.58, occuring on December 11 in Tavernes Blanques, Valencia/Valéncia. The figure below shows the mean and maximum values estimated for the past 30 days ago and the 6-day ahead forecast.
Figure 13: Estimated VRI in Comunitat Valenciana during past 30 days and coming 7 days. Red line indicates maximum values each day; blue indicates means. Vertical black dotted line shows current day.
Extremadura
During the next 7 days, we estimate the mean VRI in Extremadura will be 0.02, and the maximum will be 0.04, occuring on December 07 in Valdefuentes, Cáceres. As a comparison, during the past 30 days, the mean VRI has been 0.02, and the maximum has been 0.06, occuring on November 13 in Valle de Santa Ana, Badajoz. During the past 365 days, the mean VRI has been 0.06, and the maximum has been 0.19, occuring on June 07 in Valle de Santa Ana, Badajoz. The figure below shows the mean and maximum values estimated for the past 30 days ago and the 6-day ahead forecast.
Figure 14: Estimated VRI in Extremadura during past 30 days and coming 7 days. Red line indicates maximum values each day; blue indicates means. Vertical black dotted line shows current day.
Galicia
During the next 7 days, we estimate the mean VRI in Galicia will be 0.02, and the maximum will be 0.06, occuring on December 11 in Cambados, Pontevedra. As a comparison, during the past 30 days, the mean VRI has been 0.03, and the maximum has been 0.07, occuring on November 16 in A Coruña, Coruña, A. During the past 365 days, the mean VRI has been 0.04, and the maximum has been 0.24, occuring on September 02 in A Coruña, Coruña, A. The figure below shows the mean and maximum values estimated for the past 30 days ago and the 6-day ahead forecast.
Figure 15: Estimated VRI in Galicia during past 30 days and coming 7 days. Red line indicates maximum values each day; blue indicates means. Vertical black dotted line shows current day.
Illes Balears
During the next 7 days, we estimate the mean VRI in Illes Balears will be 0.03, and the maximum will be 0.09, occuring on December 06 in Eivissa, Balears, Illes. As a comparison, during the past 30 days, the mean VRI has been 0.03, and the maximum has been 0.17, occuring on November 20 in Eivissa, Balears, Illes. During the past 365 days, the mean VRI has been 0.08, and the maximum has been 0.42, occuring on December 15 in Capdepera, Balears, Illes. The figure below shows the mean and maximum values estimated for the past 30 days ago and the 6-day ahead forecast.
Figure 16: Estimated VRI in Illes Balears during past 30 days and coming 7 days. Red line indicates maximum values each day; blue indicates means. Vertical black dotted line shows current day.
La Rioja
During the next 7 days, we estimate the mean VRI in La Rioja will be 0.02, and the maximum will be 0.06, occuring on December 11 in Arrúbal, Rioja, La. As a comparison, during the past 30 days, the mean VRI has been 0.02, and the maximum has been 0.06, occuring on November 12 in Briñas, Rioja, La. During the past 365 days, the mean VRI has been 0.05, and the maximum has been 0.22, occuring on July 09 in Arrúbal, Rioja, La. The figure below shows the mean and maximum values estimated for the past 30 days ago and the 6-day ahead forecast.
Figure 17: Estimated VRI in La Rioja during past 30 days and coming 7 days. Red line indicates maximum values each day; blue indicates means. Vertical black dotted line shows current day.
País Vasco/Euskadi
During the next 7 days, we estimate the mean VRI in País Vasco/Euskadi will be 0.03, and the maximum will be 0.11, occuring on December 10 in Lekeitio, Bizkaia. As a comparison, during the past 30 days, the mean VRI has been 0.03, and the maximum has been 0.13, occuring on November 12 in Lekeitio, Bizkaia. During the past 365 days, the mean VRI has been 0.06, and the maximum has been 0.34, occuring on July 17 in Portugalete, Bizkaia. The figure below shows the mean and maximum values estimated for the past 30 days ago and the 6-day ahead forecast.
Figure 18: Estimated VRI in País Vasco/Euskadi during past 30 days and coming 7 days. Red line indicates maximum values each day; blue indicates means. Vertical black dotted line shows current day.
Principado de Asturias
During the next 7 days, we estimate the mean VRI in Principado de Asturias will be 0.02, and the maximum will be 0.07, occuring on December 11 in Avilés, Asturias. As a comparison, during the past 30 days, the mean VRI has been 0.02, and the maximum has been 0.08, occuring on November 17 in Avilés, Asturias. During the past 365 days, the mean VRI has been 0.04, and the maximum has been 0.25, occuring on August 12 in Avilés, Asturias. The figure below shows the mean and maximum values estimated for the past 30 days ago and the 6-day ahead forecast.
Figure 19: Estimated VRI in Principado de Asturias during past 30 days and coming 7 days. Red line indicates maximum values each day; blue indicates means. Vertical black dotted line shows current day.
Región de Murcia
During the next 7 days, we estimate the mean VRI in Región de Murcia will be 0.04, and the maximum will be 0.21, occuring on December 10 in Alcantarilla, Murcia. As a comparison, during the past 30 days, the mean VRI has been 0.03, and the maximum has been 0.21, occuring on December 10 in Alcantarilla, Murcia. During the past 365 days, the mean VRI has been 0.08, and the maximum has been 0.32, occuring on December 12 in Los Alcázares, Murcia. The figure below shows the mean and maximum values estimated for the past 30 days ago and the 6-day ahead forecast.
Figure 20: Estimated VRI in Región de Murcia during past 30 days and coming 7 days. Red line indicates maximum values each day; blue indicates means. Vertical black dotted line shows current day.